Pre-Odyssey Investments Part Deux

You guys didn't think I'd leave you stranded after only one pre-expansion investment blog, did ya?  Well, I'm not.  I'm back for part two, with some more ideas.

For starters, along with the battleship tiercide the battleships are getting new build costs which are now on sisi.  http://i.imgur.com/4LukTqT.png or http://i.imgur.com/pzvBEVZ.png  For the TLDR version, all battleships will need additional resources to build, some, quite a bit more than others.  In a vacuum, it would seem that the idea is easy.
Step 1: Buy/Build Battleship
Step 2: ???
Step 3 Profit

Unfortunately, CCP threw us a curveball this time around.  While, all battleships are going to need more resources to build them, resources will themselves be more plentiful due to the new changes to minerals announced during fanfest.  Medium to high-end ores will now also give trit, pyerite, mexallon or isogen, in addition to their normal zyd/mega/nocx http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/resource-companion-blog/#ORE.  So we have increased demand on one side, and increased supply on the other.

Given that not all battleships are being equally changed, there are 2 ships which I believe are the most likely to yield you profit: The geddon and the dominix.

Both of these ships are having their mineral requirements increased by over 100%, and hence, are a much safer bet.

In addition to this, we can short tangible assets.  Well, ok you say, how do you short something in eve.  It might not be as easy as it is IRL, but can be done.  For example, lets say you have a lot of T1 ships sitting in your hanger.  If they are unrigged, simply sell them at today's prices, and buy them later, after the mineral prices have dropped.  A good example of such a ship is a freighter (but you can do it with any t1 ship whose mineral costs are not being changed).  A fenrir sells for about 1.3B now, but with much more supply of minerals coming later, you can easily sell it now, and buy it later, when it falls to say 1.0B, pocketing the difference.  The only drawback is that you do not have access to your freighter (or whichever ship you sold) until the market drops, and you can buy it again.

In my last post, some people were giving me grief for not including the Navy Augorer as a list of profitable ships.  While I do agree the the Naug will be a beast post patch, the Amarr were at tier 1, and are now in tier 2, as their tier increases their LP will be losing value (as they will be becoming easier to get), and hence, it is hard to quite tell if their prices will rise or fall, due to the unknown supply side of the equation.

Finally, CCP will be adding capital sized rigs in Odyssey.  This means that if you have a capital ship that needs to be rigged relatively on the cheap, do it now (you can also sell caps rigged pre-patch with large rigs).    Also, if you have a stockpile of salvage, NOW is the time to sell, as demand is quite high from other people doing this.

As always, enjoy the expansion, and profit.

Pre-Odyssey Investments

As Odyssey will be coming down the pike rather soon, I should probably have another predictive blog about   how you can make money from speculating in the eve markets.  After all, we all know everyone in EVE loves to be able to make it rain.

For starters, we have to look at what's getting love in Odyssey.  Faction frigs, faction cruisers, as well as the first appearance of faction bcs.  In addition to this, most battleships are getting changes- some are getting buffed, some are getting nerfed, and some are changing to completely different ships.

There will be a big argument over who are winners, and who will be losers, but here are some of my ideas.  Please note, you need to Sell on patch day, lest the market normalize before you have sold.

Winners: Brutix Navy Issue
Ways to invest: (my expected ROI if invested this way and sold on patch day)
Buy up Brutixes (8-10%)
Buy up Gallente Beta Nexus Chips (50-100%)
Store up Gallente LP (N/A)

Winners: Republic Fleet Firetail
Ways to Invest:
Buy up firetails now (10-15%)
Buy up Mimatar UUA Nexus Chips (25-50%)
With the Matari at tier 4, I doubt storing up their LP would do much good, as people could quickly plex or mission to get a few copies for themselves.

Winners: Scythe Fleet Issue (This one is probably the most debated ship, but I think it will Rock)
Ways to Invest
Buy up Scythes (10-15%)
Buy up ScyFIs now (10-20%)
Buy Minmatar UUB Nexus Chips (25-50%)

With the Matari at tier 4, I doubt storing up their LP would do much good, as people could quickly plex or mission to get a few copies for themselves.

Cruise Missile Launcher 2s as well as 'Arbalest' Cruise Missile Launchers

Ways to invest

You gotta invest directly in the modules (10-15%), especially the arbalests (20-30%), as CMs are getting a couple buffs.  An unrigged raven will spew missiles that travel at 10K M/S post patch.  

Winners: Armageddon

While I do really like the new geddon, I'm sad, as I liked the old geddon too.

Ways to Invest: 

Buy Researched Geddon BPCs- Try to find a few off contracts that are normally priced before people realize what an awesome ship this will be in smaller engagements. (10-50%)

Buy Geddons Themselves: (5-15%)

Buy Large Faction Neuts (10-25%)- This one isn't as obvious, but with each geddon, a pilot will want to buy multiple faction neuts for extra range.  Careful not to follow this market too high, as there are other alternatives (DB, Imp Navy, Ammattar Navy, Khanid Navy, etc.)

Buy Tags (Fleet High Captain I, Fleet Commander I, Fleet commander II) that LP Stores Require for Heavy Faction Neuts: (10-30%) These might have a bit of a delay in price appreciation as they will appreciate only after the heavy neuts themselves have appreciated most likely.

While it's still pretty early, these are my early picks for making ISK.  Stay Tuned.

Lucky # 13

We've made it to blog 13, not bad considering I'm no Poetic Stanziel with a post every day.  I honestly don't know how the guy does it.  I mean, sure, some of his posts aren't worth reading, but most are, and that's where I'm impressed.

I haven't written in a while and part of that is because I haven't been playing much eve lately (read: DUST 514 addiction), and when I have been playing, I've picked up a new playstyle.  That's right, I've gone into super-carebear mode.

I now currently have 4 poses running, doing whatever poses do to make ISK (1 research pos, 1 moon mining pos, 2 reactor poses). I've also gotten into playing the markets.  I sell my wares in non-hub systems.

Also, after reading blogs such as older Greedy Goblin Posts (he now just ganks high-sec miners, but his old posts are good for the industrialist), and Merchant Monarchy I've gotten a decent understanding of how station trading should work.  I've tried it in the past with mediocre success, but after more understanding perhaps this time it will be a viable play style for me.

And finally, as always, I've speculated on the most recent patch (Retribution 1.1).  I figured battlecruisers would have increased build costs such as frigates and cruisers before them.  Honestly, I was too lazy to actually check sisi to confirm this (I know, I know, really bad), so I could have lost ISK, but such is the risk you run for being lazy.  Long story short, battlecruiser material requirements did go up, and with it, came profits.  I also assumed medium armor rep rigs would go up as well as demand rises due to new "paste eating" armor reppers.  I was able to sell most of my stash at higher amounts, and once again, I'm a happy carebear.

Eve Online Retribution: NostraDurrrus

It's been a couple months (ok, 7 weeks) since my post  "The winter shopping season".  It's time to see how good of a prophet Durrr was this time.

Prophecy: 1: Support (Logi) Frigates- I think everyone will want to test out the combat ability of the new support frigs, and see if they are over/under powered.  It would be a good idea to start producing/buying these up now while their demand is still low, and sell them on patch day.  I see no reason most players wouldn't want to pay 2-3M for a ship like this, whereas the build cost is in the low hundreds of thousands.

Jita Actuality:
The Bantam peaked around 300K, now 100K, at prediction: 120K
Inquisitor 750K, now 400K, at prediction:550K
Navitas 300K, now 100K. at prediction: 150K
Burst 250K, now 100K, at prediction: 190K

Result: Although there was an appreciation in the cost of these ships, I overestimated the demand (or perhaps underestimated the supply).


Prophecy 2: Combat & Disruption Frigates: These too will be buffed, and while I don't think their demand will meet that of the support (logi) frigs, I think most people will want to test out what they can do.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them go for 2-3X build cost on patch day.

Jita Actuality:
Crucifier peaked 420K, now sells for a little under 350K, at prediction: 380K
Griffin 600K, now 400K, at prediction: 400K
Maulus 500K, now 400K, at prediction: 400K
Vigil hasn't moved, and is still at 400K, where it was 3 months ago, and every point since.

Result: Once again, the appreciation was overestimated.


Prophecy 3: Combat, Disruption, & Attack Cruisers: I would stick with the cruisers that now suck, and will receive a nice buff due to the patch, as their demand will greatly increase, all at once, causing for a spike in price.

Jita Actuality:  I will skip the Caracal, Rupture, Arbitrator, and Blackbird, (a couple others could be added here,as I believe these were used fairly heavily, prepatch (and my prediction does state those cruisers that now suck).  How did we do?

Maller: peak: 18M, now 12M, at prediction: 12M
Moa: peak 14M, now 12.5M, at prediction: 11M
Vexor:peak 10M, now 9.5M, at prediction: 7.5M
Omen: peak: 11M, now 10M, at prediction: 8.75M
Thorax: peak: 15M, now 13M, at prediction: 11M
Stabber: peak 9.5M, now 9.5M, at prediction: 7.75M
Celestis:peaK: 9.25M, now 7.75M, at prediction: 7.5M
Bellicose: peak: 8.5M, now, 7M, at prediction 7M

Result: These cruisers maxed out a bit more than I thought.  However, prices have mostly fallen near prediction levels, so if you weren't able to sell near the highs, you at least broke even.


Prophecy 4: Support Cruisers: These might not grab the same attention as the new logi frigs, mostly because they already exist, but I do believe they see use after the patch, extensively if they prove to be near on-par with their tech-2 varients, as I suspect.

Jita Actuality:
Augoror: Peak: 8M, now 6M, at prediction 6M
Osprey: Peak 7M, now 5.5M, at prediction 5.5M
Exequror: Peak 7.5M, now: 5.5M, at prediction: 6M
Scythe: Peak 7M, now, 5.75M, at prediciton: 6M

Result: While I do see a fair amount of these flying around, and they are more impressive than I was expecting, their price rise wasn't all out amazing.


Prophecy 5: Small/medium remote reps (shield and armor, as well as energy xfer): For every new support frig and cruiser, I would assume 2-4 reps will be needed per ship.  With that kind of demand, all at once, I would assume the price of these will sky rocket.

Jita Actuality:
Small meta 4 shield xfer: (s95): peak 400K, now 100K, at prediction 200K
Small t2 shield xfer: peak 1.2M, now 900K, at prediction 1.2M
Medium Meta 4 shield xfer (s95): peak 750K, now 450K, at prediction 200K
Medium t2 shield xfer: peak: 850K now: 500K, at prediction 400K
Small Meta 4 Energy Xfer (Regard): peak: 111K, now: 8K, at prediction: 26K
Small t2 Energy Xfer: has remained fairly stead around 500K
Medium Meta 4 Energy Xfer: peak: 1.1M, now: 200K, at prediction: 50K
Medium T2 Energy Xfer: peak: 4.5M, now 3M, at prediction: 725K
Small meta 4 armor rep (Solace) peak: 550K, now 280K, at prediction: 240K
small t2 armor rep: Peak: 2.6M Now: 1.7M: at prediction: 1.4M
Medium meta 4 armor rep (Solace): Peak: 3M, now: 2.2M, at prediction: 850K
Medium T2 armor rep: Peak: 5M, now: 2.6M, at prediction: 1.9M

Result: I really hit this one out of the park.

Prophecy 6: Drone Damage Amplifier mod: While I don't expect a skyrocket out of this item, you can expect a nice price appreciation, both initially (as many of the newly remade ships will be using drones), and over time, as the mod is getting a buff.

Jita Actuality:
Drone Damage Amp 2: Peak: 2.2M, now: 1.3M, at prediction: 750K

Result: These actually shot up much more than expected, but we'll take price appreciation wherever we can get it.

Overall Lesson Learned: While the most obvious items had the least price appreciation (ships), the somewhat less obvious ones (mods that those ships will use) had very nice price appreciation.  In either case, both were ISK making opportunities, and I hope everyone of ya'll made at least 10% on their ISKies this retribution.

I Tip My Hat To You CCP

It's not everyday that CCP pulls a fast one on the majority of the eve universe, but that is exactly what happened in Retribution.  I mean, who has noticed that both Technetium and High-Sec have been nerfed, while low-sec pirating has been buffed?

Imagine the tears that openly stating a nerf to high-sec would have caused. The threads, the tears, the threats to quit eve online with all 5 accounts each high-seccer has.  Yet by nerfing it in a round-about way, and not calling it a high-sec nerf, the threads and tears are minimal, and I've yet to see any threats to quit the game.  If you already haven't figured out how high-sec is being nerfed you need to get Netflix (assuming your the one person on the planet who doesn't have it) and watch more Sherlock.  For those of you still in the dark, I'm talking of course, about the sleeper AI proliferation to all rats.  You see, incursions and sleepers already had "sleeper AI" while their backward inbred cousins, belt and mission rats, did not.  With these changes, the belt and mission rats now switch targets seemingly randomly, rather than simply focusing on the first target they aggro.  Yet, this doesn't matter much in belts as at most, there are 5-6 rats in a belt, and are almost always soloed (hence, no targets to switch).  Yet in missions (especially Level 4s), where there are a multiple of that many rats, many people would run them in groups of 2-3 toons, either 1 tank + a dps ship or two, or a couple battleships with a logi.  Yet now, all toons in the site must tank, and even the logi will now gain aggro, making missions, a staple of high-sec income, more of a challenge (I use the term challenge loosely here).

I believe the buff to low-sec pirating is fairly clear (gate guns 'forget' you if you warp off and back) and will now focus on how Technetium was nerfed.  I spoke somewhat about this in my post Winter is Coming.  You see, these tritanium built t1 cruisers are becoming somewhat of a norm for "everyday" fights, whereas the technetium built t2 stuff is left in the garage for fights that must be won.  The T1 cruiser has been tiercieded to where it is now the "everyday" car, whereas that T2 cruiser has been relegated to only be flown on nights you wish to impress the opposite gender.  Sure, the T2 cruiser still has a purpose, but the game is no longer T2 or bust.

The Winter Shopping Season

In much of America, Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving (which always falls on a Thursday) officially marks the beginning of the Christmas winter shopping season.  In Eve, why wait for Black Friday though, when you can start making iskies by shopping appropriately now, for the upcoming winter holiday (Dec 4th, of course)?  So what then, should be on your winter shopping list so as to make a profit.  Here is a copy of my list, and also an explanation as to why and how I think you can make a nice profit from each.

As a reference source for all my ideas, I use the most recent tiercide blog.
For Everyone:
1: Support (Logi) Frigates- I think everyone will want to test out the combat ability of the new support frigs, and see if they are over/under powered.  It would be a good idea to start producing/buying these up now while their demand is still low, and sell them on patch day.  I see no reason most players wouldn't want to pay 2-3M for a ship like this, whereas the build cost is in the low hundreds of thousands.

2: Combat & Disruption Frigates: These too will be buffed, and while I don't think their demand will meet that of the support (logi) frigs, I think most people will want to test out what they can do.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them go for 2-3X build cost on patch day.

3: Combat, Disruption, & Attack Cruisers: I would stick with the cruisers that now suck, and will receive a nice buff due to the patch, as their demand will greatly increase, all at once, causing for a spike in price.

4: Support Cruisers: These might not grab the same attention as the new logi frigs, mostly because they already exist, but I do believe they see use after the patch, extensively if they prove to be near on-par with their tech-2 varients, as I suspect.

5: Small/medium remote reps (shield and armor, as well as energy xfer): For every new support frig and cruiser, I would assume 2-4 reps will be needed per ship.  With that kind of demand, all at once, I would assume the price of these will sky rocket.

6: Drone Damage Amplifier mod: While I don't expect a skyrocket out of this item, you can expect a nice price appreciation, both initially (as many of the newly remade ships will be using drones), and over time, as the mod is getting a buff.

For the quick Buck:
7: New Destroyers/mining frigate- If you have access to a manufacturing pos near a market hub, and you're quick, you can take a risk, buy a bpo of these as soon as the patch hits, and build one or two of these babies.  This won't make you a ton of isk, but you might be able to sell for enough over build cost, to recoup the cost of the BPO, and therefore, have a free BPO henceforth.  I remember when the drake first came out, the first 6-7 hours, it was selling for double build cost (as people do not want to wait), before coming down in price.

8: Micro Jump Drive- Once agian, this involves time, and a risk, but it may prove fruitful (if you have a manufacturing pos near a trade hub) to buy the bpo here, and produce a few right off the bat, selling them for massive profit, as I believe this mod will be quite revolutionary.  After the initial intrigue falls away, I would manufacture in npc stations, as the cost is much cheaper.  This bpo should be able to give you consistent returns over time.

9: Salvage Drone- Once again this involves timing.  I would buy the bpo and manufacture these at a pos right after patch.  Rather than looking for a trade hub, I would try and setup shop near a mission hub, as this is the missioners dream drone.

Winter is Coming

Winter is coming, and with it many changes.  The most important change as many players are concerned is the tiercide of the remaining Tech-1 frigates, as well as all Tech-1 cruisers.  For starters, I have to give it to CCP Fozzie (and Friends).  He has shook up eve, in general, for the better, ever since he started using the moniker Fozzie. Technetium, was appropriately nerfed.  Partial Frigate tiercide left me feeling with a "well these ships are almost flyable" feeling, without them feeling overpowered. T1 Cruisers, which were initially not expected to be tiercided until next year, have ALL been added to the 2012 Winter expansion.  Judging by the frigates from tiercide part 1, one thing that appears to be clear from the expected changes to cruisers is more slots, more functionality, more of a role purpose, all of which will make T1 cruisers more apt to be flown, and getting a ship class, which is mostly ignored, to be flown, is a good thing.  So, why then, am I starting to feel pessimistic?  The answer is because virtually all actions have side effects, and Fozzie's many, swift, and well intentioned actions have side effects as well.  Side effects, that will open up a Pandora's box full of unintended consequences.

So what damage could a buffing tiercide of t1 cruisers really do?  It can hurt both large scale nullsec corps/alliances and smaller FW corps/alliances.  But how you may ask?  The answer, dear Watson, is elementary.  You see, the general idea behind tiercide, is that certain ships are better than other ships, and that this must be fixed so that differing ships have different roles, but a more expensive ship is not "better" than a less expensive ship.  To a certain extent, I believe this necessary: HICs have their roles, as do tacklers, logistics, DPS ships and EWAR.  Yet, tiercide attempts to make the cheapest cruisers, viable against more expensive ones.  The problem with making cheap ships viable, is that nobody will pay a 40-200M premium for a faction/tech 2 cruiser, when a tech 1, is virtually as good, if not better in some instances.  When was the last time you saw an Osprey Navy issue or an Eagle in pvp?  The reason you rarely see them is because the cost to value ratio is heavily skewed towards the negative side.  What the winter tiercide will do, is make the Zealot, Cerberus, Vagabond, NOmen, and SFI (etc.), into the red-headed stepchild, that nobody wants to fly because they are only marginally better (if at all) than their tech 1 cousins.  With demand WAY DOWN for these ships, who will be hurt?  Anyone who makes iskies by bringing these ships to market.  Tech 2 Moon Goo based alliances will watch their wallets slim down faster than a Victoria's Secret Model.  Faction warfare players with investments in faction blueprints will be hurt by this as well.  Those, that have LP to spend and have the whits to avoid Faction Ships, should be mostly unperturbed, however, as they can spend their LP on investments that wont sink

Don't Fret, all is not lost, however.  You merely need to stay tuned, as our next blog post will feature ways to make iskies from this upcoming shakeup.  Buy, when there is blood in the streets :)