Friday, May 10, 2013

Pre-Odyssey Investments Part Deux

You guys didn't think I'd leave you stranded after only one pre-expansion investment blog, did ya?  Well, I'm not.  I'm back for part two, with some more ideas.

For starters, along with the battleship tiercide the battleships are getting new build costs which are now on sisi.  http://i.imgur.com/4LukTqT.png or http://i.imgur.com/pzvBEVZ.png  For the TLDR version, all battleships will need additional resources to build, some, quite a bit more than others.  In a vacuum, it would seem that the idea is easy.
Step 1: Buy/Build Battleship
Step 2: ???
Step 3 Profit

Unfortunately, CCP threw us a curveball this time around.  While, all battleships are going to need more resources to build them, resources will themselves be more plentiful due to the new changes to minerals announced during fanfest.  Medium to high-end ores will now also give trit, pyerite, mexallon or isogen, in addition to their normal zyd/mega/nocx http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/resource-companion-blog/#ORE.  So we have increased demand on one side, and increased supply on the other.

Given that not all battleships are being equally changed, there are 2 ships which I believe are the most likely to yield you profit: The geddon and the dominix.
Both of these ships are having their mineral requirements increased by over 100%, and hence, are a much safer bet.

In addition to this, we can short tangible assets.  Well, ok you say, how do you short something in eve.  It might not be as easy as it is IRL, but can be done.  For example, lets say you have a lot of T1 ships sitting in your hanger.  If they are unrigged, simply sell them at today's prices, and buy them later, after the mineral prices have dropped.  A good example of such a ship is a freighter (but you can do it with any t1 ship whose mineral costs are not being changed).  A fenrir sells for about 1.3B now, but with much more supply of minerals coming later, you can easily sell it now, and buy it later, when it falls to say 1.0B, pocketing the difference.  The only drawback is that you do not have access to your freighter (or whichever ship you sold) until the market drops, and you can buy it again.

In my last post, some people were giving me grief for not including the Navy Augorer as a list of profitable ships.  While I do agree the the Naug will be a beast post patch, the Amarr were at tier 1, and are now in tier 2, as their tier increases their LP will be losing value (as they will be becoming easier to get), and hence, it is hard to quite tell if their prices will rise or fall, due to the unknown supply side of the equation.

Finally, CCP will be adding capital sized rigs in Odyssey.  This means that if you have a capital ship that needs to be rigged relatively on the cheap, do it now (you can also sell caps rigged pre-patch with large rigs).    Also, if you have a stockpile of salvage, NOW is the time to sell, as demand is quite high from other people doing this.

As always, enjoy the expansion, and profit.