Goldilocks and the Three Carebears

In my last blog, I spoke about FW plexing, and how profitable it is, and how I believed that this is all intentional, yet will be "fixed" in the future.  For starters, you have to keep in mind that CCP is a business, and they need to keep players interested in the game.  The game is quite intricate, and has many "moving parts", yet just about everything that keeps players playing falls into at least one of three categories: making isk, pvp, and social player interaction (ie: RP, forum warfare, blogging, etc.).  The social interaction is mostly done outside the game (oh sure, there are chat channels in the game, and the forums are moderated by CCP employees, but for the most part, these are aspects that are outside the scope of the game), so CCP can't do much more than set the initial conditions for interaction, and hope they happen.  PvP while important, isn't the main driver of this article, and I will discuss the brilliance that CCP has set up in the skill and pvp system at a later date.  What we are left with, and what FW plexing is all about, is making ISK, after all, ISK makes the universe go around (I'm pretty sure I read that in a physics book somewhere).

When CCP adds a new way for players to make ISK, they have many options:
How well will it pay?
How difficult should it be to complete once started?
How much ISK risk is involved?
How long should it take?  (How much of a time investment is it?)
Is there an initial investment necessary?
Is it be noob friendly, or skill intensive?
Do you need to hold sov to have access?

Let's answer these questions, and give a bit of a potential 'why' in regards to FW plexing.

How well will it pay: A theoretical maximum of roughly 630M ISK per hour*.  A rather conservative number, however, is 126M ISK per hour**.

How difficult should it be to complete once started: From an NPC standpoint, should be fairly easy (after all, a 2 day old alt can run majors).  Since it is in Low sec, however, and since you are at war (faction war), you may have to not complete your plex due to these other factors (albeit driven out, and kept out, is not all that common, but it does happen), so overall I would give it a "moderately easy".

How much ISK risk is involved: At any one time, perhaps 5M if you farm with an alt.  (Albeit there is a fair amount of risk that you wont reach a high tier, and therefore, cash out in a major way).

How much of a time investment is it: From as little as 10, to as much as 20 minutes (assuming you are not forced to leave the plex).

Is there an initial investment necessary: Minimal ISK and Skillpoint Investment.  No prior grinding needed.

Is it be noob friendly, or skill intensive: Noob Friendly

Do you need to hold sov to have access: No

All of these factors point to a low barrier to entry, good pay, easy to do, low time investment, etc.  So why is this?  Well, essentially, it's because CCP has created a new way for players to make money, and what better way to get players to do it, than by making it easy to join, easy to do, pay well, and not take much time.  Having a fair number of these qualities, incentivizes players to try it. (Look at the prior two new ways to make isk: incursions and wormhole space, they have many of these qualities as well).  After all, the worst thing that can happen is that CCP will invent a new way to make ISK, and nobody will do it, because either it's too hard, takes too long, is too risky, pays too poorly, etc., as compared to what players were already doing before.  In much the same way, that a new shop, might have a grand opening sale and sell items at a loss, or give away free items to get customers interested and knowledgeable about their store, CCP is incentivizing players to try new FW plexing, even if the reward to risk ratio is (favorably) out of whack temporarily.

Over time, however, if a way of making isk (in this case FW plexing, previously Incursions) has a risk-reward ration that is too out of whack, it will need to be dealt with, lest it marginalizes and cripples other ways of making ISK (See drone region nerf and mining).  This is why incursions were nerfed, and this is why FW plexing WILL be nerfed.  We may not know the means, as of yet.  CCP may make the plexes harder to complete, take longer, change the LP store prices, require more skills, make it harder to afk, or a dozen of other changes, but FW plexing WILL be nerfed at some point (My assumption, sooner rather than later)

In much the same way that Goldilocks found some porridge that was too hot, and some porridge that was too cold, before finding some porridge that was just right, CCP has FW currently as "too far" on the happy end of the reward to risk ratio scale.  They will therefore eventually nerf it lest everyone else gives up their other ways of making ISK for plexing.  When they nerf it, they might make it "too hard" (or in other ways reduce the reward to risk ratio too far the other way) or they might find the perfect, "just right" level.  Their eventual goal (after the "grand opening sale") with FW plexing, much like with incursions, or any other form of making ISK, is to eventually find that "just right" level of reward to risk ratio.

That being said, make your ISK now, before the CCP Nerf bat of doom, turns FW plexing into a bloody mess.

*Ok, this may not be the highest theoretical maximum, as prices do change, but the numbers I used were 3 major plexes an hour (I've found 3 in a system before, although it is rare), disregarding warp time between them, and time to reach the button is disregarded as well.  Obviously a tier 5 cashout is assumed, and I used 7,000 ISK per LP as my maximum ratio (It is the best I've found thus far, not necessarily the theoretical best).

**I used one minor, one medium, and one major plex completed per hour, with the LP exchanged for SFI BPCs, using the conservative value of 27M ISK per SFI BPC from my last post.